The evolution of active galactic nuclei and their spins

Massive black holes (MBHs), in contrast to stellar mass black holes, are expected to substantially change their properties over their lifetime. MBH masses increase by several orders of magnitude over a Hubble time, as illustrated by Sołtan's argument. MBH spins also must evolve through the series of accretion and mergers events that increase the masses of MBHs. We present a simple model that traces the joint evolution of MBH masses and spins across cosmic time. Our model includes MBH–MBH mergers, merger-driven gas accretion, stochastic fueling of MBHs through molecular cloud capture, and a basic implementation of accretion of recycled gas. This approach aims at improving the modeling of low-redshift MBHs and active galactic nuclei (AGNs), whose properties can be more easily estimated observationally. Despite the simplicity of the model, it does a good job capturing the global evolution of the MBH population from z $\sim$ 6 to today. Under our assumptions, we find that the typical spin and radiative efficiency of MBHs decrease with cosmic time because of the increased incidence of stochastic processes in gas-rich galaxies and MBH–MBH mergers in gas-poor galaxies. At z = 0, the spin distribution in gas-poor galaxies peaks at spins 0.4–0.8 and is not strongly mass dependent. MBHs in gas-rich galaxies have a more complex evolution, with low-mass MBHs at low redshift having low spins and spins increasing at larger masses and redshifts. We also find that at z > 1 MBH spins are on average the highest in high luminosity AGNs, while at lower redshifts these differences disappear