Why Do Protestants Have More Children Than Catholics? Analysis of Religious and Socio-Cultural Influences on Fertility in Europe

Osnovni cilj rada je analiza fertiliteta odabranih europskih zemalja na skupnoj razini prema kriteriju religijske pripadnosti. U radu se polazi od opće pretpostavke da je fertilitet složena pojava koje je u suodnosu s nizom društvenih, ekonomskih, demografskih, psiholoških, političkih, tehnoloških i sociokulturnih procesa i promjena. Teorijski okvir rada čine sociologijske i demografske teorije koje tematiziraju međusobnu povezanost religioznosti i fertiliteta. U empirijskom smislu rad se temelji na analizi rezultata istraživanja provedenog 2008. i 2009. godine u sklopu međunarodnoga znanstvenoistraživačkog projekta European Values Study. Istraživanje je provedeno u četrdeset i sedam europskih zemalja (N = 67.492). Od tih zemalja odabrane su, prema kriteriju većinske konfesionalne pripadnosti, tri skupine zemalja – s većinskom protestantskom i katoličkom populacijom te zemlje s većinskom populacijom koja nije konfesionalno izjašnjena (»sekularizirane« zemlje). Na temelju pet hipoteza, fertilitet se analizira s obzirom na religioznost u općem smislu, sociodemografske i sociopolitičke karakteristike, društveni kapital i percepciju osobne dobrobiti te s obzirom na stavove o rodnim ulogama i stavove o djeci, braku i obitelji. Rezultati pokazuju da su najvažniji prediktori fertiliteta neke sociodemografske karakteristike (dobna struktura, veličina mjesta stanovanja te stupanj obrazovanja), dok religioznost i ostali prediktorski sklopovi bilježe znatno manji utjecaj na fertilitet.The main objective of this paper was the analysis of fertility on a collective level of a selected number of European countries by religious affiliation. The basic assumption was that fertility is a complex phenomenon that is related to a number of social, economic, demographic, psychological, political, and technological processes and changes. The theoretical frame was built around sociological and demographic theories that investigated relations between religiosity and fertility. Empirically, the paper is based on the analysis of the European Values Study 2008/2009 data set, which included data from 47 European countries (N = 67,492). Selection and grouping of those countries was made according to the criteria of predominant religious affiliation (Protestant, Catholic, and secularized). The authors tested five hypotheses that linked fertility to: religiosity in the broader sense, socio-demographic and socio-political characteristics, social capital and the perception of personal well-being, attitudes towards gender roles, and attitudes towards children, marriage, and family. Results indicated that the most important predictors of fertility were certain socio-demographic characteristics (age, size of the location of residence, and formal education), while religiosity and other predictors accounted considerably less for variations in fertility