Altered surface hydrology as a potential mechanism for subsidence in coastal Louisiana

The natural wetlands of coastal Louisiana are experiencing rapid subsidence rates averaging 9± 1mmyr1. Recent measurements based on GPS data and CRMS surface elevation tables (SETs) have shown that most of the subsidence is shallow and occurs in the uppermost 5 meters. Sources of subsidence and the origin of their spatial variability are strongly debated. Here we use CRMS SETs together with historic maps of coastal Louisiana to explore two hypotheses: (i) shallow subsidence is a result of accommodation created by (long-term) deep subsidence processes and self-weight consolidation, and (ii) changes in marsh hydrology (groundwater and surface water flows) have led to a recent increase in shallow subsidence. First, we find that, although self-weight consolidation would result in generally high observed shallow subsidence rates, it does not explain the rates nor the spatial variability of the CRMS SET data. Second, based on historic maps, we find that shallow subsidence rates are significantly higher for CRMS sites where shipping canals have reduced their distance to the marsh edge. This is potentially a result from increased sediment deposition, but CRMS data also show altered groundwater levels near the marsh edge. We find some indication that prolonged periods of low water could have led to increases in effective stresses that explain some of the rapid rates of shallow subsidence observed along Louisiana's coastline