Coordinated Population Forecast for Tillamook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2020-2070

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Tillamook County is comprised of two types of areas: its urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Bay City, Garibaldi, Manzanita, Nehalem, Rockaway Beach, Tillamook City, and Wheeler) and areas outside those UGBs. Tillamook County’s total population gradually increased in the 2000s (Figure 1). Some subareas, such as Bay City, Manzanita, and Nehalem, experienced faster population growth than the county as a whole, averaging between one and three percent growth annually. In contrast, Rockaway Beach remained relatively unchanged between 2000 and 2010, and Garibaldi lost population. The population growth that occurred in Tillamook County between 2000 and 2010 resulted from strong net in‐migration. Population growth due to natural increase (births minus deaths) was negative during the same time period, with roughly 25 more deaths than births. Such natural decrease is relatively common in Oregon, and Tillamook County’s story is not unlike those of many other counties without major cities or universities. Despite a strong birth rate (slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1), Tillamook County experienced net out‐migration of young adults of childbearing age. That reduced the number of births that occurred to Tillamook County residents over the decade. Simultaneously, Tillamook County experienced a growing number of deaths each year due to the aging of its population. Together, these two trends caused natural population decrease