Many of our decisions are based on probabilistic information. While probability theory is a useful tool for quantifying probabilities mathematically, subjective probability is a complex psychological phenomenon. We investigated developmental changes in subjective probability and the modulating role of emotions in probabilistic cognition. For this, we asked N = 45 children (M = 10.59, SD = 2.28, range 7-15) and N = 160 adults (M = 25.20, SD = 14.35, range 18-88) to estimate the probability of a series of three-item compound events generated from a known probability distribution. While children’s estimates largely resembled those of adults, conservatism (avoidance of the extremes) and representativeness judgments (basing estimates on similari...
Children distinguish less well than adolescents the numerical meaning conveyed by verbal probabilit...
People persist in confounding random processes with naïve conceptions of chance and luck; at the sa...
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. Dept. Brain and Cognitive Sciences, 2013.When exploring ou...
Uncertainty plays a role in a variety of early learning processes such as numerical reasoning, langu...
People’s emotional reactions often depend on probability. However, it is unknown whether children co...
The classical, frequentist and subjective interpretations of probability are the three main perspect...
Rational agents should integrate probabilities in their predictions about uncertain future events. H...
Classic and contemporary researchers have studied the child’s abilities to discriminate quantitative...
Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions an...
Probability is an area of mathematics that remains a mystery to many people and is problematic for o...
45 p.In this paper we examine how risk attitudes change with age. We present participants from age 5...
Human learners regularly face the challenging task of inferring unobservable psychological states in...
In our daily lives we continually confront situations that require making decisions without sufficie...
Causal illusions occur when people perceive a causal relation between two events that are actually u...
Adults are capable of predicting their emotional reactions to possible future events. Nevertheless, ...
Children distinguish less well than adolescents the numerical meaning conveyed by verbal probabilit...
People persist in confounding random processes with naïve conceptions of chance and luck; at the sa...
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. Dept. Brain and Cognitive Sciences, 2013.When exploring ou...
Uncertainty plays a role in a variety of early learning processes such as numerical reasoning, langu...
People’s emotional reactions often depend on probability. However, it is unknown whether children co...
The classical, frequentist and subjective interpretations of probability are the three main perspect...
Rational agents should integrate probabilities in their predictions about uncertain future events. H...
Classic and contemporary researchers have studied the child’s abilities to discriminate quantitative...
Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions an...
Probability is an area of mathematics that remains a mystery to many people and is problematic for o...
45 p.In this paper we examine how risk attitudes change with age. We present participants from age 5...
Human learners regularly face the challenging task of inferring unobservable psychological states in...
In our daily lives we continually confront situations that require making decisions without sufficie...
Causal illusions occur when people perceive a causal relation between two events that are actually u...
Adults are capable of predicting their emotional reactions to possible future events. Nevertheless, ...
Children distinguish less well than adolescents the numerical meaning conveyed by verbal probabilit...
People persist in confounding random processes with naïve conceptions of chance and luck; at the sa...
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. Dept. Brain and Cognitive Sciences, 2013.When exploring ou...