Multi-hazard susceptibility assessment using analytic hierarchy process: the Derwent Valley Mills UNESCO World Heritage Site case study (United Kingdom)

Many of the UNESCO World Heritage Sites face geological threats which could have negative effects on the value, integrity and accessibility of their heritage assets. A relevant example is the Derwent Valley Mills UNESCO World Heritage site, one of the key sites of Britain's industrial revolution of the 18th century and located along the Derwent River Valley. Individual susceptibility scenarios of natural hazards in the area like collapsible deposits, compressible ground, debris flow, landslide, running sands, shrink-swell, soluble rock and flooding (both riverine and groundwater) are available, but a comprehensive product able to support disaster mitigation measurement and land planning still does not exist. On this basis, a multi-hazard susceptibility analysis was completed with the added benefit of reducing the complexity and providing a methodological framework for multi-hazard estimation. The analysis was completed in a GIS environment through an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) multicriteria decision-making process. Since the AHP method is affected by a user selection bias, a quantitative Relative significance index was derived to rank the AHP factors during the susceptibility estimation. This index suggests that flooding is the principal natural hazard for the Derwent Valley Mills UNESCO World Heritage site. The multi-hazard susceptibility map also indicates that most of the areas where the mills are located are subject to significant susceptibility to natural hazards