Dynamics and Control of Pine Processionary Moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) Outbreaks in Forest Ecosystems: A Theoretical Analysis

Infestations of defoliating insect pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) in many European forests are a severe economic and health problem. Therefore, implement methods of prevention and control of pest infestation events is crucial to minimize their damages. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, a minimal theoretical model describing the relationships between forest leaf and the larval insects' biomass is proposed. Secondly, this model is used to understand and forecast the effects of pest infestation on a forest ecosystem and to compare different pest control policies. The simulated pest outbreaks agree with what is described in the literature. The estimate of the effects of the most commonly used infestation control policies is conducted by analyzing the variation produced by different control policies on a set of quality indicators characterizing the larval infestations and the overall condition of the forest leaf biomass. This analysis suggests that none of the proposed pest control policies provides positive results on all considered aspects