Can cases and outbreaks of norovirus in children provide an early warning of seasonal norovirus infection: an analysis of nine seasons of surveillance data in England UK

Abstract Background Children are important transmitters of norovirus infection and there is evidence that laboratory reports in children increase earlier in the norovirus season than in adults. This raises the question as to whether cases and outbreaks in children could provide an early warning of seasonal norovirus before cases start increasing in older, more vulnerable age groups. Methods This study uses weekly national surveillance data on reported outbreaks within schools, care homes and hospitals, general practice (GP) consultations for infectious intestinal disease (IID), telehealth calls for diarrhoea and/or vomiting and laboratory norovirus reports from across England, UK for nine norovirus seasons (2010/11–2018/19). Lagged correlation analysis was undertaken to identify lead or lag times between cases in children and those in adults for each surveillance dataset. A partial correlation analysis explored whether school outbreaks provided a lead time ahead of other surveillance indicators, controlling for breaks in the data due to school holidays. A breakpoint analysis was used to identify which surveillance indicator and age group provided the earliest warning of the norovirus season each year. Results School outbreaks occurred 3-weeks before care home and hospital outbreaks, norovirus laboratory reports and NHS 111 calls for diarrhoea, and provided a 2-week lead time ahead of NHS 111 calls for vomiting. Children provided a lead time ahead of adults for norovirus laboratory reports (+ 1–2 weeks), NHS 111 calls for vomiting (+ 1 week) and NHS 111 calls for diarrhoea (+ 1 week) but occurred concurrently with adults for GP consultations. Breakpoint analysis revealed an earlier seasonal increase in cases among children compared to adults for laboratory, GP and NHS 111 data, with school outbreaks increasing earlier than other surveillance indicators in five out of nine surveillance years. Conclusion These findings suggest that monitoring cases and outbreaks of norovirus in children could provide an early warning of seasonal norovirus infection. However, both school outbreak data and syndromic surveillance data are not norovirus specific and will also capture other causes of IID. The use of school outbreak data as an early warning indicator may be improved by enhancing sampling in community outbreaks to confirm the causative organism.