International audienceThis paper proposes a novel method to establish and identify a probability density function characterizing the fatigue lifetime. The method is initiated with a quantitative analysis of the microstructure of the material, which provides the initial probability distribution of defects. After identifying a given probability density function of defects, one can transport it into a lifetime probability density function using a growth law involving a measure of the loading over a cycle. Several parameters of the growth law are finally estimated from a given set of fatigue experiments on specimens and several techniques are discussed. The method is applied on real defect observations and lifetime data. The estimated lifetimes...