Et...après ? Revue des prospectives pour la sécurité alimentaire et l'agriculture

International audienceIn light of the conference on the general theme of "Action for a sustainable world" the term "Food security" encourages forecasts. Food insecurity is a present issue, and is likely to worsen in the coming decades. Most scientists think that global food security is threatened by certain ongoing or future changes (identified differently depending on the authors). The other part of the conference's theme "from theory to practice" forces us to examine the practices implemented to strengthen food security orfailing that-encourages us to scan the practical solutions advised by authors, in such a way that we propose a critical review of literature regarding food security linked with agriculture. The relationship between food security and agriculture is not straightforward on a local scale. Indeed, it is acknowledged that the conjunction of armed conflicts and climate disasters is the leading cause of malnutrition and food insecurity (FAO, 2017). However, on a world or continental scale, long-term food security is secured only by flourishing agriculture. To link food security and agriculture, we focus our literature review on a wider scale (world, continent, country) only. Moreover, we consider two timescales around the 2050s and the 2100s. We sorted the papers according to the kind of envisioned change: i) continuation of past trends (OECD-FAO, 2017); ii) changes in physical factors only [via temperature and precipitations (Lobell et al., 2008), or via other effects of climate change (Calzadilla et al., 2010; Vincent, 2015; Quasem Al-Amin and Ahmed, 2016)]; iii) changes also relating to economic factors (Adams et al., 1998); or iv) relating to social factors (Dalhberg, 1994). The authors suggest various solutions, which we present in ascending order of societal structural changes. There are shifts in i) international trade of agricultural commodities (e.g. Calzadilla et al., 2011); ii) in agricultural practices alone: from the simplest modifications (Lobell et al., 2013; Burke and Lobell, 2010 ) to revolutions including high-tech and biotechnologies (Tait and Morris, 2000; Godfray et al., 2010); iii) in consumption practices: from the reduction of meat-based diets (Garnett, 2015) to extreme behaviors in extreme conditions (Denkenberger and Pearce, 2015). The most radical solutions are: iv) disruption of agricultural structures and practices (e.g. Altieri et al., 2015; Malézieux, 2012); and v) paradigm shifts and renewal of whole social structures (Dalhberg, 1994; Handoh and Hidaka, 2010). In general, authors acknowledge the physical factors to be more compelling for the farther horizon (2100) than for the nearer one (2050). However, the conclusions are not homogenous. For some authors, the adaptation will require more effort in the long term than now (i.e. we can wait). For others, the “adaptation” requires immediate and decisive actions for huge shifts involving agriculture, society and ways of life. The review highlights the rift among scientists, between authors proposing affordable solutions for agriculture and undemanding for the rest of the society, and those authors advocating a paradigm shift and new social structures, to address challenges of food security