Power on the grid: Understanding coal lock-in and regime resistance in Philippine energy transition

Diverging from conventional framings of energy transition as a strictly, or predominantly, technological shift, this article brings attention to the power shift necessary to, and the power struggles constitutive of, the making of a low-carbon future. Through a study of the Philippine energy landscape and its key players, I demonstrate how the country's coal-dependent energy system created the conditions for guaranteed wealth accumulation and oligarchic control of the on-grid electricity system. This, I argue, contextualises the resilience of coal use for power generation in the main islands, notwithstanding the viability and desirability of renewable energy deployment across the archipelago. Drawing insights from critical social theory, and political ecology in particular, the paper illuminates how durable power structures in society could render energy trajectories highly resistant to decarbonisation, which favours a more pluralistic, decentralised system of energy provision—viewed as risky and/or insufficient at sustaining the economic base of established players. Energy producers' strategies to manage the transition thus prioritise defence of existing market share and mitigation of risks that might arise from a coal phase-out—at a cost that stands to be borne by ratepayers and taxpayers. A low-carbon shift, the article contends, will require confronting long-standing inequalities in the Philippine energy system to enable environmentally and socially just energy pathways