Analysis on Future Changes of Extreme Rainfall in Baiu Rainy Season for Stepwise Adaptation by Using 150-year Continuous Run

With the growing importance of taking stepwise adaptation measures to climate change, we conducted a future change analysis of rainfall during the baiu rainy season using 150-year continuous run. We analyzed two aspects about the baiu rainfall: baiu frontal zones based on average daily rainfall in July and baiu extreme rainfall based on hourly rainfall. The results show that the rainfall area gradually moves northward in both the frontal zone and location of the extreme rainfall events. The analysis of future changes in average daily rainfall by region showed that there was a marked tendency for rainfall to in-crease in northern Japan, but there were also regions that contained periods when rainfall was lower than the historical average. The reasons for this are discussed in terms of the influence of sea surface temperatures and typhoons. Furthermore, we showed that the duration of extreme rainfall events will gradually increase in the future