Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the shallow steppe Lake Neusiedl (Austria-Hungary) to climate-driven hydrological changes using a palaeolimnological approach

Lake Neusiedl, the largest steppe lake in Europe, is particularly sensitive to climate variations due to its extreme shallowness (zmax = 1.8 m) and low ratio of catchment to lake area (3.5 : 1). Changes in water budget, salinity and turbidity have key implications for the lake’s ecology and management. Here, we present a multi-proxy palaeolimnological reconstruction of the evolution of Lake Neusiedl since the end of its last complete desiccation (1865–1868), based on an undisturbed radiometrically dated core taken from the open water portion of the lake. Geochemical and biological (algal) proxies outline the succession of three major ecological stages since 1873 ± 16 yrs, with the first major changes appearing already in the 1930s as driven by climate related hydrological variability. Subfossil diatoms proved to be reliable for tracking long-term changes in the trophic conditions of Lake Neusiedl while diatom-inferred lake conductivity revealed to be unreliable due to a combination of lake environmental settings and the absence of a site-specific training set. Nonetheless, multivariate statistical analyses and comparisons with limnological data confirm a great potential of subfossil diatoms for revealing past ecological changes and tipping points of shallow lakes, as long as studies rely on a multi-proxy approach. In agreement with limnological surveys, the sediment record corroborates the high vulnerability of Lake Neusiedl, both in present and past times, towards climate-driven changes in water level and salinity, and allows the prediction, by analogy with the past, of future ecological changes in a context of global warming and increasing nutrient inputs from non-point sources