Revealing competition in post-Soviet economies : Belarus’ and Kazakhstan’s Comparative Advantage in times of trade shocks

In 2014, Russia imposed an import ban against a large variety of western food products. The ban served as a shield against foreign competition, including from Russia’s neighbours. In 2015-2016, a major drop in the Russian rouble’s exchange rate heightened Russia’s food products’ competitiveness versus its neighbours’. Both these events acted as trade shocks to Belarus’ and Kazakhstan’s agricultural sectors’ as they suddenly created an uneven competitive balance between their sectors and Russia’s. However, while previous research has documented disruptions to political cooperation between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan following these shocks, researchers have yet to quantify the influence of heightened Russian agricultural sector competitiveness on its neighbouring countries’ agricultural sectors. This Master’s thesis studies Belarus’ and Kazakhstan’s agricultural sectors’ capacity to maintain competitiveness versus Russia’s during both these shocks by analysing the developments of and the causes behind these developments for two indices measuring the countries’ Revealed Comparative Advantage between 2014-2019. Belarus’ and Kazakhstan’s agricultural sectors competed rather well with Russia’s during both these events. However, while Belarus had the overall most internationally competitive agricultural sector out of the three countries, Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector’s competitiveness better withstood the negative effects of increases in Russian competitiveness. Overall, Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector emerges as having the most rapidly growing international competitiveness out of the three countries