Possible impact of transit oriented development on public transport – case cornubia (to D, or not to D, that is the question

In South Africa, with traditional land use, public transport (PT) trips are long and slow. PT is mainly used by Captives and is operated inefficiently and expensive. Walking is seen as a necessity to reduce transportation costs, or to cater for the lack of PT coverage. Higher income Choice Users mainly travel by private car. As a response, Integrated Public Transport Network and, more recently, Transit Oriented Development (TOD) plans have been developed. In this paper the impact of TOD on PT is explained through the Cornubia Boulevard case study. It can be concluded that improved PT – with traditional land use developments – would hardly see any difference in peak trip generation and distribution, and only a small shift to PT use, due to improved QLoS. However, additional high density, mixed-use and well-designed TOD could lead to more PT trips: shorter trips in peak periods and more off-peak trips, which will make PT systems more efficient.Papers presented at the 38th International Southern African Transport Conference on "Disruptive transport technologies - is South and Southern Africa ready?" held at CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa on 8th to 11th July 2019