Global Search for High-Value Extended-Range Forecast Products

NPS NRP Executive SummaryNavy Earth Systems Prediction Capability (ESPC) forecasts/re-analyses and a framework for evaluating their value in a simulated decision context will be used to identify potential forecast products with high value in Navy decision-making. ESPC ensemble and deterministic forecasts have been validated, with the ensemble slated for operational use in late 2020 (Barton et al., 2019). For a given accuracy, longer-range forecasts are more valuable than shorter-range because there is more flexibility to use them at longer lead times. Extended-range forecasts, such as those derived from ESPC, open up the possibility of using forecasts in planning decisions, setting the stage for even more effective exploitation of shorter-range forecasts. In support of and complementing the Naval Research Laboratory's outreach to operational forecasters and end-users to identify high-value extended-range forecast products based on ESPC, this work would broadly explore combinations of planning decision scenarios and parameters, ESPC variables and impacts to identify regions, seasons, variables and decision contexts in which ESPC could provide high value as measured by improving decisions and mission outcomes. This method may identify candidate products that combine variables or exploit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability in mission planning.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.