RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN 2016 AND 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS

The Russian interference campaign against the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 was an unprecedented effort to strike at the core of American democracy, and it is widely expected that election interference will continue in the future. However, key aspects of Russian electoral interference remain unexplored. While there is extensive research into the tactics and methods that Russia employed to influence the 2016 and 2020 elections, far less attention has been placed on the motives for Russia’s use of election interference, as well as its effectiveness in achieving the Kremlin’s objectives. This thesis examines two potential motives—regime preservation and international status—that may have underpinned Russia’s election interference operations. By tracing the evolution of Russia’s posture toward the West during the rule of Vladimir Putin, I find that although both motives have been at work, the desire to protect the Putin regime from pro-democracy movements was the primary driver for recent election interference operations. In turn, a cost-benefit analysis of Russian election interference finds that the costs imposed on Russia—particularly economic sanctions—did not sufficiently outweigh the benefits to deter Russia from targeting U.S. elections. As a result, election interference will likely remain an attractive tool for the Kremlin to advance its objectives.Lieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited