Disentangling the role of Africa in the global spread of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza

The role of Africa in the dynamics of the global spread of a zoonotic and economicallyimportant virus, such as the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx of the Gs/GD lineage, remains unexplored. Here we characterise the spatiotemporal patterns of virus diffusion during three HPAI H5Nx intercontinental epidemic waves and demonstrate that Africa mainly acted as an ecological sink of the HPAI H5Nx viruses. A joint analysis of host dynamics and continuous spatial diffusion indicates that poultry trade as well as wild bird migrations have contributed to the virus spreading into Africa, with West Africa acting as a crucial hotspot for virus introduction and dissemination into the continent. We demonstrate varying paths of avian influenza incursions into Africa as well as virus spread within Africa over time, which reveal that virus expansion is a complex phenomenon, shaped by an intricate interplay between avian host ecology, virus characteristics and environmental variables.USAID under the OSRO/GLO/501/USA and OSRO/GLO/507/USA projects and by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727922 (DELTAFLU). The European Research Council under the European Unionʼs Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 725422-ReservoirDOCS). P.L. acknowledges support by the Research Foundation – Flanders FWO, G066215N, G0D5117N and G0B9317N). B.V. is a postdoctoral research fellow supported by the FWO.http://www.nature.com/naturecommunicationsam2020Microbiology and Plant Patholog