Understanding mediator intervention behaviour in international conflicts : a theoretical and empirical analysis of the influence of contextual factors on mediators' choice and enactment of mediation strategies

This thesis seeks to provide a framework in which mediator intervention behaviour in international conflicts can be evaluated and understood. Since mediation is a political and social process, a review of decision making, conflict and negotiation literature enables the identification of a number of contextual clusters that may be pertinent to how conflict management behaviour is carried out. These are the antecedent factors of the nature of the parties and the nature of the dispute, the concurrent factors of the nature of the mediator and the nature of the mediation event, and the consequent factors of the nature of previous mediation events. These factors are specified within a contingency model framework which is utilised to identify and analyse how the choice and implementation of different mediation strategies are influenced by the context in which they operate. In this study, mediator intervention behaviour is defined in terms of three distinct intervention strategies: Communication-Facilitation, Procedural, and Directive strategies. Through the utilisation of an appropriate technique of multivariate empirical analysis, mediators' efforts in international disputes from. 1945-1995 were evaluated. It was found that the contextual clusters of the nature of the parties, the nature of the current mediation event, and the nature of previous mediation efforts were the strongest indicators distinguishing between the enactment of the three different mediator strategies. The findings were presented in terms of two final contingency models whose predictive value were tested and found to adequately explain the mediation behaviour of three sample groups: mediation efforts during the Cold War period; mediation efforts post-Cold War; and mediation efforts in Middle East disputes. Various applications of the models were suggested for use by practitioners of mediation, through case scenario analysis, demonstrating how mediators can utilise the information provided in the contingency models to understand and evaluate their intervention options. This study does not attempt to provide a 'how-to' guide of mediation but to present a conceptual framework in which the essential features of mediation efforts can be identified and understood to encourage further research on the process of international mediation and to assist mediators to orient their intervention behaviour according to the specific context of the dispute they are managing