Integrative Assessment and Modelling of the Non Timber Forest Products Potential in Nuba Mountains of Sudan by Field Methods, Remote Sensing and GIS

Pressure imposed at any one place or point in time results in a complexity of spatial and temporal interactions within topographical ecosystems. It can be propagated through the system and may have implications for future ecosystem functions over a wide array of various spatial and temporal scales. Under conditions of wars and other socio-economic conflicts, these processes are most forceful in developing countries amidst declining economic growth, lack of awareness, deterioration of ecosystem services, loss of existing traditional knowledge bases and weak governance structures. Forests are an essential part of ecosystem services, not only as a resource but as a contributor to biological systems as well. They represent one of the most important sectors in the context of Environmental Change (EC), both from the point of mitigation as well as adaptation. While forests are projected to be adversely impacted under EC, they are also providing opportunities to mitigate these changes. Yet this is one of the least understood sectors, especially at the regional level - many of its fundamental metrics such as mitigation potential, vulnerability and the likely impacts of EC are still not well understood until now. Thus, there is a need for research and field investigations into the synergy of mitigation and adaptation so that the cost of addressing EC impacts can be reduced and the co-benefits can be increased. The aim of this study is to focus particularly on forest-based ecosystem services and to use forests as a strategy for inducing environmental change within the Nuba Mountains in Sudan, specifically for systems in poor condition under EC, and furthermore to explore forests as an entry point for investigating the relationship between urban and rural development and ecosystem services. In addition, the aim is also to raise understanding of the relations between patterns of local-level economic and demographic changes, the nature and value of local ecosystem services, and the role of such services in increasingly interlinked urban and rural livelihood systems. The methodology applied in the current research is three-pronged: a formal literature review, a socio–economic survey (based on semi-structured interviews of household heads via Rapid Rural Appraisal (RRA), with a focus on group discussions, informal meetings, free listening and key informant techniques), and multitemporal optical satellite data analysis (i.e. Landsat and RapidEye). Landsat imagery was utilized to gather the spatial characteristics of the region and to study the Land Use/Land Cover (LU/LC) changes during the period from 1984 to 2014. Meanwhile, RapidEye imagery was used to generate the tree species distribution map. Qualitative and quantitative techniques were applied to analyze socio-economic data. Moreover, Food Consumption Score (FCS) was used to gauge both diversity and frequency of food consumption in surveyed areas. Geographic object-based image analysis (i.e. K-Nearest Neighbour classifier and knowledge-based classifiers) based on a developed model of integrated features (such as vegetation indices, DEM, thematic layers and meteorological information) was applied. Post Classification Analysis (PCA) as well as Post Change Detection (PCD) techniques were used. Hotspot analysis was conducted to detect the areas affected by deforestation. Furthermore, Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS), Autocorrelation (Moran's) analysis, and Geographically Weighted Regression analyses (GWR) were applied to address the interaction of the different socioeconomic/ecological factors on Non Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) collection and to simulate the dependency scenarios of NTFPs along with their impact on poverty alleviation. Additionally, simulation was performed to estimate the future forest density and predict the dependency on forest services. An increasing impact of intensive interactions between the rural and urban areas has long been acknowledged. However, recent changes in the global political economy and environmental systems, as well as local dynamics of the study area driven by war, drought and deforestation, have led to an increasing rapidity and depth in rural transformation, as well as to a significant impact on urban areas. Like most environmental problems, the effects of these drivers are complex and are stressed diversely across different geographic regions by the socio-political processes that underlie recent economic and cultural globalization. These interactions and processes have increasingly brought rapid changes in land cover, social, institutional and livelihood transformation across broad areas of South Kordofan. Moreover, the study unveils new dynamics such as high rates of migration and mobility by the indigenous population and the increasing domination of market-centric livelihoods in many villages that were once dominated by rural agricultural and natural resourcesbased socio-economic systems. Furthermore, the research highlights the significant roles of NTFPs and trees in contributing to Nuba Mountains’ economic development, food security and environmental health, indicating which requirements need to be addressed in order to improve these potentials. The study proves that drawing on a wide range of these products for livelihood strengthens rural people’s ability to deal with and adapt to both EC and extreme events. Moreover, the results underline the importance of participatory approaches of rural women and their impact on NTFPs management with recommendations of more emphasis on potential roles and the ability of women to participate in public fora. Furthermore, the study shows that the use of high-resolution satellite imagery, integrated with model-based terrestrial information, provides a precise knowledge about the magnitude and distribution of LU/LC patterns. These methods can make an important contribution towards a better understanding of EC dynamics over time. The study reveals that more information exchange is needed to inform actors and decision makers regarding specific experiences, capacity gaps and knowledge to address EC. Subsequently, new policies and strategies are required to much more specifically focus on how to deal with consequences of longer-term EC rather than with the impacts of sudden natural disasters