On the Future(s) of Energy Communities in the German Energy Transition: A Derivation of Transformation Pathways

Active participation of citizens in the sustainable energy transition—particularly in energycommunities—is explicitly desired by the European Union and considered vital for a successfultransformation of Europe’s energy system. Currently, energy communities, i.e., citizen-led groupsgenerating energy from renewable sources can be found across Europe, though current numbers aresmall. However, it is expected that the majority of EU households will be active in some form in thegeneration of energy by 2050. In order to understand how such a development could come about, andif desired, how it could be ensured, we developed and applied a quasi-dynamic model using the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) approach and with it analyzed and assessed such a transition in detail. Data forthe CIB model was derived from case studies, interviews, three surveys including two discrete choiceexperiments, expert workshops, and complementary secondary data. A central consideration of themodel is a differentiated representation of the heterogeneity of actors in society and their interactions.Main results obtained from the application of the model are possible transformation pathways ofcitizen participation in the energy transition of Germany. A key finding was that if current trendscontinue, a citizen-driven energy transition based on energy communities will unlikely be successful.We conclude that several framework conditions must change simultaneously from the status quo sothat different social groups in society can be active in the generation of energy. These include changessuch as the abolition of hindering regulations and the expansion of financial support schemes witha focus on lower socioeconomic groups. Furthermore, only in a combination of conducive socialfactors such as neighborhood cohesion and conducive social influence, as well as favorable economicconditions, can energy communities become an important player in Germany’s future energy system