Introduction to the special focus: Tourism forecasting – New trends and issues

Tourism forecasting is one of the longest standing areas in tourism economics research, with over half a century of history already. The development of tourism forecasting research responds and contributes to the industry practice. Accurate demand forecasts are the foundation of tourism-related business decisions on pricing and operation strategies, and for governments on infrastructure investment and tourism policymaking. In recent years, tourism forecasting has received more attention from industry practitioners. First, echoing the increasing numbers of international and domestic tourists, the tourism industry has continuously grown and become more dynamic. As a result, industry practitioners have hoped to understand the market and predict future trends more accurately and comprehensively. Second, in recent years, decision makers have realized the increasing importance of quantitative evidence and have become more likely to rely on or refer to it for their strategy and policy formulations. Finally, the development of big data based on Internet technology has made it possible for the industry to obtain more accurate forecasts. Data on online tourist behaviour can be traced and retrieved. With greater understanding of it, the industry can then use it to forecast future trends.