Labour market restrictions and migration flows in the European Union: the case of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine

The thesis aims to estimate the future migration flows from Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova to the EU. Based on the experience of previous EU enlargements and econometric modelling using the method of Ordinary Least Squares with Fixed Effects, multiple forecasts are created. The forecasts capture the likely development of migration flows in the event of collapse of labour market restrictions as well as the case of no labour market liberalization. The results show that migration flows are expected to be moderate, posing no threats to the stability of the labour markets of EU member states. The increase of migration due to the accession to the EU is likely to be short-term, without substantial impacts in the long-run. Ukraine has the biggest migration potential and is likely to supply the highest amount of labour migration