Comparison of pre-elections surveys and results of the 2010 and 2013 Chamber of Deputies elections

This bachelor's thesis deals with opinion polls before elections, their accuracy and their limitations. Even though these polls get great attention at public space, their limitations are not emphasized enough because of their issues. In my paper, I deal with the theory and clarify the way in which the polls are created at first. To present some context, a history of opinion polls is introduced in short in the text as well as their role in the political space. I also focus on the limitations of opinion polls and on the reasons which influence their accuracy. Furthermore, the text presents various methods which are used in pre-election surveys. It also describes the difference between specific types of poll results. The issue of potential influence of these polls on the decisions of voters is also discussed. In the next part of the thesis, I verify the accuracy of the opinion polls by comparing them to election results from the elections to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic in 2010 and 2013. Three Czech agencies were involved in this study: CVVM, Median and STEM. Information about when the Czech voters decide if they will vote and which party they will choose plays significant importance in this thesis with regard to its conclusion. The aim of this thesis is to find out if the elections..