Campaign to stop 'killer robots': prospects of a preemptive ban on autonomous weapons systems

This thesis addresses the issue of autonomous weapons systems and their potential preventive prohibition with regard to current international discussions at multilateral forums such as the Human Rights Council, First Committee of the General Assembly, and Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons at UN. The aim of this thesis is to provide an extensive empirical account of the substance of those discussions and their most likely outcome, estimating state preferences with use of content analysis and the likely outcome with median voter prediction. From a theoretical standpoint, the thesis draws from defensive realism and contributions of arms control, arms trade as well as institutionalist literature from which it draws the concept of legalization. From a methodological standpoint, the thesis relies on quantitative methods, in particular, content analysis for collection of data and median voter theorem for prediction of the likely outcome. In addition, the thesis uses the method of regression analysis to examine states' activity at the aforementioned fora. In conclusion, the thesis finds that the most likely outcome of discussions on autonomous weapons systems is a moderate-obligation form of hybrid regulation, which includes solutions such as framework convention and moratorium. Further finding of..