Optimal Vaccination in a SIRS Epidemic Model

Federico S, Ferrari G, Torrente M-L. Optimal Vaccination in a SIRS Epidemic Model. Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers. Vol 667. Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics; 2022.We propose and solve an optimal vaccination problem within a deterministic compart-mental model of SIRS type: the immunized population can become susceptible again, e.g. because of a not complete immunization power of the vaccine. A social planner thus aims at reducing the number of susceptible individuals via a vaccination campaign, while minimizing the social and economic costs related to the infectious disease. As a theoretical contribution, we provide a technical non-smooth verification theorem, guaranteeing that a semiconcave viscosity solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation identifies with the minimal cost function, provided that the colosed-loop equation admits a solution. Coditions under which the closed-loop equation is well-posed are then derived by borrowing results from the theory of Regular Lagrangian Flows. From the applied point of view, we provide a numerical implementation of the model in a case study with quadrativ instantaneous costs. Amongst other conclusions, we observe that in the long-run the optimal vaccination policy is able to keep the percentage of infected to zero, at least when the natural reproduction number and the reinfection rate are small.MSC2010 subject classification: 93C15, 49K15, 49L25, 92D3