Slip rates of the Altyn Tagh, Kunlun and Karakorum faults (Tibet) from 3D mechanical modeling

International audienceWe use 3-D mechanical modeling representing faults as planar surfaces with frictional properties that obey Coulomb-failure process to explore the long-term slip rates of the Altyn Tagh fault and Kunlun faults in the north Tibetan plateau. Crustal theology is simplified as an elastoplastic upper crust and a viscoelastic lower crust. Far-field GPS velocities and late Quaternary fault slip rates are used to constrain the model results. Rheological tests show that effective fault friction lower than 0.1-0.08 leads to high slip rates that fit with geologically and geodetically determined slip rates of the Kunlun fault (10-11.7 +/- 1.5 mm/yr). Meanwhile, the modeled Altyn Tagh fault reaches slip rates similar to 13.7 mm/yr to similar to 7.8 mm/yr in its central portion, between ranges of the geological slip rates. Associated with high slip rates, our model predicts that central Tibet (similar to 84 degrees E-95 degrees E) from the Altyn Tagh fault to the north of the Himalayan arc accommodates north-south shortening and east-west extension rates of similar to 10-12 mm/yr and similar to 8-10 mm/yr, respectively. We also question the widely accepted idea that interseismic strain is driven at the base of the seismogenic zone by a screw dislocation. If this assumption fails, the presented model implies that interseismic strain around large strike-slip faults could be distributed in a much broader way if the lithosphere deforms as a thin elastic plate rather than an elastic half-space with an embedded dislocation. If this distributed deformation is ignored, and the instantaneous surface deformation field modeled as that resulting from slip on a dislocation below a specified depth embedded in an elastic half-space, the estimated slip rate will inevitably be lower than the true long-term slip rate. This appears to explain why geodetic slip rates proposed for the Altyn Tagh fault (510 mm/yr) are lower than some of the geological slip rates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved