Long-term evolution of the spin of Mercury: I. Effect of the obliquity and core-mantle friction

22 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables. Published in Icarus (www.elsevier.com/locate/icarus).International audienceThe present obliquity of Mercury is very low (less than 0.1 degree), which led previous studies to always adopt a nearly zero obliquity during the planet's past evolution. However, the initial orientation of Mercury's rotation axis is unknown and probably much different than today. As a consequence, we believe that the obliquity could have been significant when the rotation rate of the planet first encountered spin-orbit resonances. In order to compute the capture probabilities in resonance for any evolutionary scenario, we present in full detail the dynamical equations governing the long term evolution of the spin, including the obliquity contribution. The secular spin evolution of Mercury results from tidal interactions with the Sun, but also from viscous friction at the core-mantle boundary. Here, this effect is also regarded with particular attention. Previous studies show that a liquid core enhances drastically the chances of capture in spin-orbit resonances. We confirm these results for null obliquity, but we find that the capture probability generally decreases as the obliquity increases. We finally show that, when core-mantle friction is combined with obliquity evolution, the spin can evolve into some unexpected configurations as the synchronous or the 1/2 spin-orbit resonance