Risk processes with dependence and premium adjusted to solvency targets.

International audienceThis paper considers risk processes with various forms of dependence between waiting times and claim amounts. The standing assumption is that the increments of the claims process possess exponential moments so that variations of the Lundberg upper bound for the probability of ruin are in reach. The traditional point of view in ruin theory is reversed: rather than studying the probability of ruin as a function of the initial reserve under fixed premium, the problem is to adjust the premium dynamically so as to obtain a given ruin probability (solvency requirement) for a fixed initial reserve (the financial capacity of the insurer). This programme is carried through in various models for the claims process, ranging from Cox processes with i.i.d. claim amounts, to conditional renewal (Sparre Andersen) processes