Simulation the transmission of airborne infectious disease by individual space-time activity-based model

The 21st century has seen a boom of the application of individual-based models for the simulation of infectious disease transmission. How to consider the contact patterns and spatial effects at the individual level are two of the key questions. Considering the contact patterns and spatial effects, ISTAM (Individual space-time activity-based model) was designed and developed. The model is based on the integration of an individual-based model in which the transmission network is built on the physical contacts between individuals at a fine space-time scale. At this scale, human social behaviours, the environment’s physical conditions and specific infectious disease’s transmission modes are considered. The two-level structure of ISTAM (between-AB and within-AB levels) makes the model flexible to be applied to different circumstances. At the within-AB level, raster space AB simulation, vector space AB simulation and role-based AB simulation were designed and applied to different application cases. Activity bundle (AB) simulation is a method to obtain a specific contact network (specific to target infectious disease) from the space-time dynamics of individuals at fine scales constrained by both the individuals’ social activity and the space’s physical condition. Parameters of raster space AB were explored. The human contact network, a by-product during the simulation, was used for model calibration and validation. ISTAM was applied to simulate hypothetical influenza outbreaks in the campus of the University of Southampton and the city of Eemnes (the Netherlands), respectively. Different control measures were tested. The results show that the model behaviour is approximately consistent with expectations.