Mortality perceptions and their influence on fertility intentions in Mozambique

Demographers often posit that a decrease in mortality rates is a pre-condition for fertility decrease. This fertility decline only happens after a certain lag from the start of mortality decline, the explanations for which are not yet fully understood. This lag might be related with parents’ mortality perceptions and its better understanding will likely influence interpretations of fertility behaviour. This research concerns the relationship between women’s mortality perceptions and their subsequent fertility desires in high mortality settings. It focuses on the various estimations of women’s mortality perceptions and the desired family size, and looks at the possibility that couples use insurance strategies involving high fertility to compensate for possible future child loss. In addition, this study explores the relationship between women’s perceptions of AIDS mortality and fertility behaviour. The study setting is Mozambique, a Southern African Country with high infant and child mortality levels, in a context of rising HIV prevalence. Data from the Mozambique Demographic and Health Survey held in 1997 were analyzed, and, in addition, a quantitative survey and an in-depth interview survey were carried out an analyzed. Results suggest that women perceive mortality rates to be higher than they are in reality. In addition, results imply that women use insurance strategy to a considerable extent in response to child mortality, and that women’s perceptions of child survivorship into adulthood strongly affects their fertility desires. However, women’s experience of several child’ deaths has a repressor effect on the intention to have an additional child. Finally, women’s intention to change fertility behaviour due to AIDS seems to be linked not only to AIDS awareness but also to women’s perceptions of survivorship into adulthood.