Modelling for HIV infection and AIDs

HIV infection represents one of the major health problems facing the world in the final decade of the twentieth century. Despite twelve years of intense research effort since the official recognition of AIDS in 1981 there is still no cure for AIDS or even a safe and effective treatment for some of the symptoms of HIV infection. Many of the microbiological and physiological mechanisms involved in the disease are poorly understood. Currently the main weapons against AIDS are methods for preventing the spread of the virus, for example public health education campaigns to promote safer sexual behaviour and needle exchanges for drug users, and the treatment of those symptoms which do respond to medication. The modelling approach of Operational Research has been used to great effect in the area of health, although applications to the detailed clinical progression of patients through the various stages of a disease are comparatively rare. In this thesis we apply various modelling techniques to the clinical modelling of HIV infection. We describe a series of simulation models implemented in a computer program which can be used by a variety of health professionals involved with the care of AIDS patients. The information provided by these models is of direct practical relevance to health care planners and administrators and to medical consultants.