Integration Study Of Prospective Hazards Models For The Enhancement Of A Virtual Range Simulation Model

This paper describes our progresses toward enhancing a Virtual Range (VR) for space launch modeling capability. The VR discussed in this paper is a range safety simulation environment. It is capable of determining the expectation of casualties (EC) resulting from the toxic effects of gas dispersion caused by a failed space launch and subsequent explosion (accidental or instructed) of a spacecraft (the Space Shuttle in this instance) shortly after liftoff. In addition to the above, we are currently rendering the VR capable of also determining the EC resulting from falling debris and blast overpressure propagation, which are the others two major hazards resulting from a spacecraft explosion. We also investigate two data fusion approaches to estimate the EC resulting from the combined effects of the three hazards mentioned above, as their effects may not necessarily be independent of each other