Is there a role of the kidney failure risk equation in optimizing timing of vascular access creation in pre-dialysis patients?

BACKGROUND The aims of this study were to assess the utility of using the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) as an indicator to guide timing of vascular access creation in pre-dialysis patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS Patients referred for vascular access creation had KFRE calculated at the time of assessment and compared to standard criteria for referral. Receiver operating characteristic curves were produced for each parameter. The outcomes at 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year were used as time points for analysis. RESULTS Two hundred and three patients were assessed, and full data sets were available on 190 (94.6%). Access was created in 156 patients (82.1%) with a fistula in 153 (98.7%). Only 65.7% initiated dialysis within the follow up period. Those patients with an AV access created (n = 156) 37 (23.7%) did not reach end stage over the entire follow up period. Of the remaining patients (n = 119) that reached end stage 72.2% (n = 86) started on an AVF/AVG and 27.7% (n = 33) on a CVC. Using ROC analysis for referral eGFR, ACR and KFRE predicting dialysis initiation predictors resulted in C statistics for eGFR, ACR, and KFRE2 of 0.68 (0.58-0.79), 0.75 (0.65-0.84), and 0.72 (0.62-0.81) at 3 months; 0.73 (0.65-0.81), 0.70 (0.62-0.78), and 0.75 (0.67-0.81) at 6 months; and 0.65 (0.57-0.72); 0.67 (0.59-0.75), and 0.68 (0.61-0.77) at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS In a group of patients referred for vascular access creation the predictive models are relatively poor when applied to initiation of dialysis. The application of current guidelines to fistula creation appears to result in a high rate of unnecessary fistula formation and non-use. The study requires further evaluation in a test set of patients to confirm these findings and also identify where such risk based approaches may need modification