Toward an effective analysis of public transportation demand factors in car-dependent cities: case of Makkah City, Saudi Arabia

A fundamental requirement for successful and effective public transportation planning is analyzing and understanding the factors that affect demand. This is particularly important for fast-growing and car-dependent cities with a high influx of visitors, such as Makkah City in Saudi Arabia. In this study, some factors that affect public transportation demand in Makkah were analyzed, and a geographic information system–based composite public transportation demand index (CPTDI) was established. Indicators of public transportation demand were placed in three groups defining social need, network need, and land use. These indicators were combined into the CPTDI to define the overall public transportation demand at the district level. When applied to actual data, the indicators demonstrated that high public transportation demand was concentrated in the inner districts surrounding the Holy Mosque within the first ring road and the main arterials leading toward it. The CPTDI was found to depict the public transportation demand distribution in a realistic manner when compared with the separate indicators. The CPTDI would facilitate faster and more efficient public transportation planning based on demand and improve understanding of the consequences of system planning and implementation