Statistical evaluation of the flight activity of the European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana Den. & Schiff.) in the Northeastern Black Sea Region (Russia)

The paper presents a statistical assessment of the probabilistic nature of summer in males of Lobesia botrana Den. et Schiff. according to the data of pheromone monitoring in the vineyards of the North-Eastern Black Sea region. The observed and calculated basic statistical indicators of the frequency binomial distribution of summer (beginning, length of summer, the central trend of summer and the expected period of the central trend) of three economically significant generations are considered. With significant restrictions, the period of mass summer of the pest is indicated, calculated as the standard deviation of summer of all individuals in the period. Indicators such as kurtosis, asymmetry and others have been calculated and analyzed, which make it possible to understand better the nature of the summer of a harmful object. When analyzing the dynamics of the fly of the Lobesia botrana Den. et Schiff by various methods, it is concluded that the actually observed fly of the pest are more uniform in comparison with theoretical abstraction. Wherein, the first fly is more extended and unstable than the subsequent periods of mating — this character of fly is influenced by abiotic environmental conditions. Based on long-term monitoring data of seasonal cycles of development, which include four generations, the period of full development of one generation of the Lobesia botrana Den. et Schiff in field conditions was established. Its main probabilistic indicators and differences between generations are provided. These data can help in understanding the age dynamics of the grape leafroller population and its probabilistic nature in order to improve the prognosis of the pest development and the timing of protective measures