Laajamittaisen luonnonmukaisen maatalouden kansantaloudelliset vaikutukset

Selvityksessä pohditaan laajamittaisen luomutuotannon kansantaloudellisia vaikutuksia. Luomutuotannossa eräitä tavanomaisen maatalouden tuontipanoksia korvataan kotimaisella työllä, joten siirtyminen vaikuttaisi makrotalouden muuttujista ainakin työllisyyteen ja vaihtotaseeseen. Muutokset elintarvikkeiden kuluttajahinnoissa olisivat myös mahdollisia. Tulosten mukaan laajamittainen luomutuotanto lisäisi koko kansantalouden työllisyyttä keskimäärin vajaalla yhdellä prosenttiyksiköllä, luomutekniikan kehitysvauhdista riippuen. Vuotuinen tuonti vähenisi noin 1,2 mrd. mk, mikä on noin 1% kokonaistuonnista. Muutokset tuottajahinnoissa ja tätä kautta elintarvikkeiden vähittäishinnoissa riippuvat harjoitetusta tukipolitiikasta. Parhaassa tapauksessa hinnat saattaisivat pysyä ennallaan, mutta huonoimmassa tapauksessa tuottajahintojen pitäisi kohota noin 20 - 30%, jotta maatalouden kannattavuus säilyisi likimain nykytasolla. Elintarvikkeiden vähittäishinnat voisivat tällöin nousta nykyisestä noin 5-8%.In the past few years, organic farming practices have become increasingly popular in finnish agriculture, mainly due to the EU membership and the expected fall in the profitability of conventional cereal production. The purpose of this study is to assess the macroeconomic implications of a large scale conversion to organic agriculture. In organic farming the farm-derived inputs are substituted for foreign inputs like artificial fertilizers and pesticides. Because the yields per hectare and per cow usually decrease, the labour force in agriculture must increase, if 100% self-sufficiency in food products is still desired. Via multiplier effects, this increases employment in the economy. The import of agricultural inputs declines, improving the current account, that is, decreasing the net foreign debt (liabilities - assets). The retail prices of domestic food products could also change, leading to changes in the consumer's surplus. The conversion period is assumed to last 10 years, and the projected changes in the farm structure within this period are also included. The results show that the conversion to organic agriculture would increase the employment rate (persons employed/total labour force) on average by 0,8 percentage points, depending on the development of organic production technology. Total imports would decrease about 1%, or 1,2 billion FIM. The changes in food prices depend on available agricultural supports, and are harder to predict. In the "best" scenario where all subsidies remain at the present level, converting to organic agriculture would probably not cause any changes in the retail food prices. In the "worst" scenario where the national support and the 700 FIM/ha premium for organic farming will be abolished, producer prices would have to rise some 20 - 30% in order to keep the agricultural income at the present level. This could lead to an average 5 - 8% increase in retail food prices.vokMTT Taloustutkimus (MTTL)Macroeconomic implications of a large scale conversion to organic farmin