Income development in sheep husbandry : a farm model study

Suomen lammastalouden keskeinen ongelma EU-jäsenyysaikana on ollut erittäin alhaalla pysynyt kotimainen tuottajahintataso. Kotimainen lampaanlihan tuotanto onkin viime vuosina vähentynyt. Toisaalta kuluttajahintojen lasku on lisännyt lampaanlihan kulutusta. Lisääntyneen kysynnän vuoksi tuonti on moninkertaistunut jäsenyysvuosina. Lammastalouteen liittyy kuitenkin monia sellaisia tekijöitä, jotka puoltavat tuotannon säilyttämistä osana kotieläintuotantoamme. Perusedellytykset kannattavalle tuotannolle tulisi silloin olla olemassa. Lammastalouden tulokehitystä on tarkasteltu MTTL:ssa vuodesta 1994 vuoteen 2000 tilamallilaskelmien avulla. Laskelmat osoittavat tuottajahintojen ja tukitasojen alenemisen pudottaneen voimakkaasti lammastalouden tuloja etenkin, kun samanaikaisesti tuotantopanosten hinnoissa ei ole tapahtunut vastaavia muutoksia. Tulojen lasku on ollut voimakkaampaa Etelä-Suomessa A- ja B-alueilla kuin C-tukialueella, jossa pohjoisen tuen avulla on voitu kompensoida siirtymäkauden tukien laskua. Ilman korvaavia tukijärjestelmiä siirtymäkauden tukien päättyminen kuluvan vuoden lopussa romahduttaisi lammastalouden edellytykset eteläisen Suomen alueella täysin. Lammastalouden tulokehitys lähivuosina riippuukin pitkälti harjoitettavasta tukipolitiikasta. Kuitenkin toimenpiteillä, joilla voidaan vaikuttaa markkinahintojen kohoamiseen ja tuotantokustannusten alenemiseen, on pitemmällä ajanjaksolla keskeinen merkitys lammastalouden tulo- ja kannattavuuskehitykseen.The EU membership and abolition of border controls has been reflected as a strong growth in the import of sheep meat. During the EU membership the producer price level of sheep meat has been only about half of the average price level in the EU. The small volume has been considered the main reason for the problems in sheep husbandry due to the low efficiency both in sheep meat production and in the processing industry. The share of sheep husbandry in the total Finnish agricultural production is very small, but sheep husbandry involves factors that support the continuation of this as part of the Finnish livestock production. This report is concerned with the income development in sheep husbandry in 1994-2000. The study is based on the farm model drawn up at the Association of Rural Centres, and calculations have been made for the support areas A, B, C1 and C3. Depending on the regional differences in the yield levels, the cultivated area that meets the need for fodder in the flock varies from 20 to 30 ha. The number of animals in the model is 100 ewes, and 200 lambs and 20 sheep are annually sold to for slaughter. Wool is also sold. The calculations assume that the yields, use of inputs as well as prices for the products and input prices are the same in the different parts of the country, and there is regional variation only for the part of support. The development of the product and input prices until the autumn of 1999 has been taken into account in the study. The main business result concept used to indicate the income development is agricultural income which shows the compensation for farmers labour and own capital invested in agriculture. The support paid in 1995-1999 is based on verified support levels. In the calculations for 2000 transitional aid is no longer paid, and the possible continuation of the aid for serious difficulties has not been taken into account in the calculations. Instead, the effects of the Agenda 2000 reform have been included in the estimates for income development. As a result of the changes in the returns, support and costs after the EU membership, in 1995 the agricultural income of sheep farms fell by almost 11 % in support area A, in area B the income stayed at about the earlier level, in area C1 it rose by a little over 3 % and in area C3 it increased by as much as 27 %. Due to the decrease in the transitional aid, based on the farm model calculations the income development in sheep husbandry has been decreasing during the period 1996-1999, except in 1998 when the national aid for crop production was also paid to the grass area of sheep farms, and the producer price also rose slightly. At the support levels of 1999 and taking into account the estimated development of the product and input prices, the farm model calculations show that in areas A, B and C1 the agricultural income falls by 13-14 % and in area C3 by a little under 8 % from 1998. The outcome of the negotiations with the EU Commission concerning the continuation of the national aid for Southern Finland is highly important for sheep farms, too. Without any national aid the agricultural income would fall by 82 % in area A and 66 % in area B from 1999 to 2000. In area C the northern aid compensates to some extent for the decrease in the transitional aid, but the income of sheep farms is still going to fall by almost 10 % in area C1 and about 2 % in area C3.vokMTT Taloustutkimus (MTTL