Modeling of influential predictors of gastric cancer incidence rates in Golestan Province, North Iran

Golestan province has a reputation for relatively high incidence rates of gastric cancer in Iran. Along with dietary, lifestyle and environmental influential factors, soil selenium and high levels of pesticide used may exert influence in this region. The present study was designed for modeling the influential predictors on incidence of gastric cancer in Golestan. All registered cases of gastric cancer from March 2009 to March 2010 (49 females and 107 males) were investigated. Data were gathered by both check list and researcher made questionnaire (demographic, clinical and lifestyle characteristics) and analysed using logistic regression. Mean (±SD) age at diagnosis was 62.9±13.8 years. CIR and ASR of gastric cancer showed 9.16 and 13.9 per 100,000 people, respectively. Based on univariate logistic regression, a history of smoking (OR= 2.076), unwashed hands after defecation (OR= 2.612), history of cancer in relatives (OR= 2.473), history of gastric cancer in first-degree relatives (OR= 2.278), numbers of gastric cancers in first-degree relatives (OR= 2.078), history of X-ray and dye exposure (OR= 2.395), history of CT scan encounter (OR= 2.915), improper food habits (OR= 3.320), specific eating behavior (OR= 0.740), consumption of probable high risk foods (OR= 2.942), charred flesh (OR= 1.945), and animal fat (OR= 2.716) were confirmed as a risk factors. Changes in lifestyle may be expected to increase gastric cancer incidence dramatically in the near future. Therefore, appropriate educational interventions should be designed and implemented by competent authorities