Pemodelan dan Analisis Pengaruh COVID-19 Terhadap GDP Indonesia

Virus COVID-19 telah memasuki wilayah Indonesia sejak Maret 2020. Penularan virus dapat melalui kontak langsung dengan manusia yang terinfeksi COVID-19 melalui sekresi mulut dan hidung serta menyentuh permukaan yang terkontaminasi virus, hal tersebut menyebabkan jumlah kasus manusia yang terinfeksi semakin meningkat. Pemerintah telah menetapkan berbagai kebijakan untuk menanganinya, antara lain Pembatasan Sosial Bersekala Besar (PSBB), menerapkan Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat (PPKM), menerapkan protokol kesehatan seperti menjaga jarak, memakai masker dan mencuci tangan, menerapkan sistem work from home (WFH), dan saat ini menerapkan PPKM tingkat level 1,2,3 dan 4. Hal tersebut dapat memberikan dampak yang signifikan di berbagai sektor, salah satunya pada sektor ekonomi. Penelitian ini membahas tentang dampak COVID-19 terhadap sektor ekonomi. Membahas tentang sektor ekonomi, maka dinamika GDP harus dipertimbangkan karena pada saat pandemi COVID-19 nilai GDP Indonesia telah mengalami penurunan sebesar 2.25%. Untuk mengetahui pengaruhnya diperlukan analisis populasi penyebaran COVID-19 dan analisis pada sektor ekonomi melalui model Matematika penyebaran populasi COVID-19 dan model Matematika di sektor ekonomi. Model Matematika penyebaran populasi COVID-19 yang dikembangkan merupakan model SIRD dengan tambahan vaksinasi, dimana S I R D V merupakan populasi manusia yang susceptible, infected, recovery, died dan vaccine. Model SIRDV diestimasi dengan menggunakan metode Extended Kalman Filter untuk mendapatkan data estimasi manusia yang terinfeksi COVID-19. Selanjutnya dihubungkan pada sektor ekonomi, data GDP Indonesia dan data estimasi manusia yang terinfeksi COVID-19 dibangun model Matematika yang dikembangkan dari model Vector Error Correction (VEC). Hasil simulasi pada penelitian model Matematika penyebaran populasi COVID-19 memiliki peramalan yang baik, dengan nilai MAPE 6.65%. Model Matematika pada sektor ekonomi memiliki tingkat akurasi yang tinggi dengan MAPE 5.58% dan uji menunjukan bahwa banyaknya manusia yang terinfeksi COVID-19 memberikan pengaruh terhadap nilai GDP Indonesia. ================================================================================================= The COVID-19 virus has entered Indonesian territory since March 2020, easy transmission can be through direct contact with humans infected with COVID-19 through mouth and nose secretions and touching surfaces contaminated with the virus, causing the number of infected human cases to increase. The government has set various policies for its handling, including Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB), implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM), implementing health protocols such as maintaining distance, wearing masks and washing hands, implementing a work from home (WFH) system, and currently implementing PPKM levels 1,2,3 and 4. This can have a significant impact in various sectors, one of which is the economic sector. This study discusses the impact of COVID�19 on the economic sector. Discussing the economic sector, the dynamics of GDP must be considered because during the COVID-19 pandemic the value of Indonesia’s GDP has decreased by 2.25%. To determine the effect, a population analysis of the spread of COVID-19 is needed and an analysis of the economic sector through the Mathematical model of the spread of the COVID-19 population and the Mathematical model in the economic sector. The mathematical model of the spread of the COVID-19 population that was developed is the SIRD model with additional vaccinations, where S I R D V represents the human population that is susceptible, infected, recovery, died and vaccine. The SIRDV model was estimated by using the Extended Kalman Filter method to obtain estimation data for humans infected with COVID-19. Furthermore, in the economic sector, Indonesia’s GDP data and data on estimates of humans infected with COVID-19 are models built by Mathematics developed from the Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. The simulation results in the COVID-19 population distribution model study have good forecasts, with a MAPE value of 6.65%. Mathematical models in the economic sector have a high level of accuracy high with a MAPE of 5.58% and the test shows that the number of people infected with COVID-19 has an effect on the value of GDP Indonesia