Foreign policy uncertainty shocks and US macroeconomic activity: Evidence from China

International audienceThis paper investigates the spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) from China on US real macroeconomic variables in both expansion and recession periods. We use monthly data and estimate a Smooth Transition VAR (STVAR) model over the recent period. We find robust evidence that Chinese uncertainty significantly affects US economic activity during busts while no effect is perceptible during booms. The results also underline that Chinese EPU is a determinant of policy uncertainty, unemployment and industrial production in US