Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Indonesian Tourism

The global COVID-19 pandemic has brought the world to a standstill, and tourism has been the hardest hit from all major economic sectors. The United Nation World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) estimates that by 2020 the arrival of international tourists around the world could decrease drastically in all countries. Foreign tourist visits to Indonesia through all entrances in June 2020 decreased by 88.82% compared to June 2019. This study aims to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on foreign tourist visits to Indonesia. In addition, to find out the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business actors supporting tourism in Indonesia and to what extent the policy response supports the Indonesian tourism sector during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Hypothetical scenario analysis is used to estimate the decrease in the number of foreign tourists. Two scenarios are presented with relevant alternatives. The first scenario expects a decrease in foreign tourist visits at the same rate compared to the same month in the previous year. The second scenario is that the decline will be in the same proportion for each month after the restrictions on social activities are opene