Potential of civil resistance: a case of Russian aggression in Lithuania

The scope of the research covers nowadays Lithuania’s political topics – Russian aggression and defense against it. The aim of this paper is to research and to analyze, not the conventional warfare and it’s potential, but social capabilities in a fight against Russian aggression instead. In order to achieve this aim, this paper reviews and analyzes the works of authors Gene Sharp and Ana Arjona, in which civil resistance methods and their determinants. However, there is a lack of civilian-based defense theory appliance in hybrid warfare, as well as researches that show detailed civilian-based defense potential in specific cases. This gap is filled in this research paper by bringing new concept of civilian resistance. Considering Lithuanian laws that stress the necessity to take civilian resistance actions and the way they should be made in case of foreign aggression, the problem of the research arises – how well is Lithuanian society ready to take civilian resistance actions in case of Russian aggression? Taking into account the problem, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the potential of actions of civilian resistance in case of protecting the Republic of Lithuania from aggression of Russian Federation. After evaluating the problem and the purpose of the paper, the object of the research is considered Lithuanian society’s capability to take actions of civilian resistance. From there the main tasks are formed: to overview civilian-based defense theory; to evaluate the possibility of scenario of annexation of Crimea happening in Lithuania; to assess the potential of war of Donbas region happening in Lithuania; to evaluate the potential of Lithuania’s civilian resistance in cases of Crimea and Donbas conflicts if they happened in Lithuania. Aiming to reveal the civilian resistance in specific situations, the method of scenario making is used to fulfill this qualitative research. This method helps to anticipate possible endings of actions, taking into account two essential aspects: the first one being the things that we know quite well for us to make assumptions and the second one being the things that are unclear to us and those that we do not know. In this research, the first category covers demographic indicators, laws, institutions, while the second one – outside actors and society’s actions during the conflict (the potential of civilian resistance)