The impact of demographic trends and migration onthe labor market

Demografsku sliku Hrvatske u 21. stoljeću obilježava nekoliko, sad već karakterističnih procesa: neprekidna prirodna depopulacija, starenje stanovništva, te ravnoteža u dobnoj strukturi stanovništva. Prema Popisu 2001. u Hrvatskoj je živjelo 4.437.460, a prema popisu 2011. 152.571 stanovnika manje. Osnovni demografski procesi su fertilitet, mortalitet, migracije i starenje. Približnom analogijom možemo reći kako Hrvatsku karakterizira nizak fertilitet, demografsko starenje i iseljavanje koje je u zadnjih nekoliko godina značajno poraslo. Zbog predugog trajanja tih procesa stanovništvo Hrvatske se nalazi u vrlo nepovoljnom demografskom razvoju. U radu je napravljena analiza demografskih kretanja u RH i na Europskoj razini radi usporedbe demografskog stanja. Analiza započinje praćenjem prirodne depopulacije, starenja stanovništva, te migracijama. Predočena je demografija na Europskoj razini i na razini Hrvatske po županijama, depopulacija, migracije, zaposlenost, odnosno nezaposlenost. Zaključak na analizu objašnjen je utjecajem svih čimbenika na tržite rada u RH i odnosom demografskih i ekonomskih kretanja, te kao jedna od važnih stavki utjecaja svih demografskih kretanja u Republici Hrvatskoj prikazana je, temeljem dosadašnjih istraživanja, projekcija budućih demografskih kretanja.The demographic picture of Croatia in the 21st century is characterized by several already characteristic processes: continuous natural depopulation, an aging population, and a balance in the age structure of the population. According to the 2001 Census, there were 4,437,460 people living in Croatia and 152,571 less people according to the 2011 Census. The basic demographic processes are fertility, mortality, migration and aging. By a rough analogy, we can say that Croatia is characterized by low fertility, demographic aging and emigration, which has increased significantly in recent years. Due to the long duration of these processes, the population of Croatia is in a very unfavourable demographic development. The paper analyses the demographic trends in the Republic of Croatia and at European level in order to compare the demographic situation. The analysis begins by monitoring natural depopulation, population aging, and migration. Demographics at European and Croatian levels by counties, depopulation, migration, employment, or unemployment are presented. The conclusion on the analysis is explained by the influence of all factors on the labour markets in the Republic of Croatia and the relationship between demographic and economic trends, and as one of the important items of influence of all demographic trends in the Republic of Croatia, projections of future demographic trends are presented, based on past research