THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE TREND IN THE NUMBER OF BANKRUPTCIES IN THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA

Globalna kriza izazvana pandemijom virusa COVID-19 uzrokovala je značajne poremećaje u poslovanju poduzeća svih zemalja, pa tako i Republike Hrvatske, što je vidljivo kroz trend porasta broja otvorenih stečajnih postupaka u RH. Istraživanjem, koje je provedeno na uzorku od 31-og poduzeća iz RH, te nad kojima je 2020. godine pokrenut stečajni postupak, ispitana je povezanost i utjecaj krize izazvane pandemijom virusa COVID-19 na trend kretanja broja stečajeva u Republici Hrvatskoj u 2020. godini, kroz rezultate odabranih scoring modela za predviđanje stečaja poduzeća - Altmanovog revidiranog Z-scora, Kralicekovog DF pokazatelja te BEX indeksa, u sklopu čega je provedena i komparativna analiza scoring modela za prognoziranje stečaja na području RH za pojedine djelatnosti i ukupno hrvatsko tržište. Dodatno, razmatran je i utjecaj ključnih makroekonomskih varijabli na stečaj poduzeća u Republici Hrvatskoj tijekom krize izazvane pandemijom virusa COVID-19. Odabrani modeli s visokom prosječnom uspješnošću od gotovo 90% ukazuju na pojavu stečaja u posljednjoj promatranoj godini, što je uglavnom posljedica loših vrijednosti pokazatelja likvidnosti kao znaka ugroženosti temeljnih egzistencijalnih ciljeva poslovanja tijekom krize pandemije COVID-19. Sukladno rezultatima istraživanja koji ukazuju na važnost integriranog sagledavanja kompleksnog utjecaja krize na pojavu financijskih nestabilnosti te stečaja kao krajnjeg negativnog ishoda, u održavanju egzistencijalnih ciljeva poduzeća koji su se pokazali značajno ugroženima prilikom pojave i eskalacije globalne krize pandemije COVID-19, preporuča se sustavno praćenje financijskih pokazatelja kao i razvoj novog, suvremenijeg modela za prognoziranje stečaja poduzeća, temeljenog na kombinaciji kvantitativnih i kvalitativnih, kao i mikroekonomskih i makroekonomskih varijabli, razvijenog posebno za poduzeća čije se poslovanje odvija na području RH.The global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions in the operations of companies all over the world, including the Republic of Croatia, followed by the increasing number of bankruptcy proceedings. The research, conducted on a sample of 31 companies from the Republic of Croatia over which bankruptcy proceedings have been initiated in 2020, examined the impact and connection of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the trend of bankruptcies in the Republic of Croatia, through the results of selected scoring models for predicting company bankruptcy - Altman's revised Z-score, Kralicek's DF indicator and BEX index. In addition, a comparative analysis of the scoring models for forecasting bankruptcy in the Republic of Croatia was conducted for a particular industry and the overall Croatian market, indicate the occurrence of bankruptcy in the last observed year, with a relatively high average success rate of almost 90%. Moreover, the impact of key macroeconomic variables on the bankruptcy of companies in the Republic of Croatia during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was considered. Business operations of the analyzed companies are largely consequence of underperformed values of liquidity indicators as a sign of endangering the existential goals of business during the time of COVID-19 crisis. In accordance with the results of the research, which indicate the importance of an integrated view of the complex impact of the crisis on financial instability and bankruptcy as the final negative outcome, systematic monitoring of financial indicators, which proved to be significantly endangered during the COVID-19 crisis is proposed, together with development of a new, modern model for predicting corporate bankruptcy, consisting of combination of quantitative and qualitative, as well as microeconomic and macroeconomic variables, developed especially for companies operating in Croatia