Climate projections of near-surface air equivalent temperature over the Adriatic region

U ovom radu proučavana je prizemna ekvivalentna temperatura (Te) u klimatskim projekcijama na području Jadrana, pri čemu su korišteni rezultati regionalnog klimatskog modela RegCM4, horizontalne rezolucije 12.5 km i s rubnim uvjetima 4 globalna klimatska modela: EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-MR i HadGEM2-ES. Prizemna ekvivalentna temperatura zraka izračunata je iz prizemne temperature zraka i specifične vlažnosti zraka, koje su jedne od produkata RegCM4. Uspoređivanjem ekvivalentne temperature u projekcijama za razdoblja 2021.-2050. i 2041.-2070. za dva različita scenarija koncentracija stakleničkih plinova, RCP 4.5 i RCP 8.5, uočen je značajan porast u svim simulacijama (Te) u cijelom promatranom području, a naročito nad morem i u toplijem dijelu godine nad kopnom. Primijećeno je također da omjer miješanja značajno doprinosi povećanom trendu rasta (Te), što govori da (Te) ima snažnu povezanost s dostupnošću vlage. Štoviše, sve simulacije ukazuju da je srednjak (Te) iznad mora veći nego iznad kopna.This diploma work (master thesis) studies near-surface air equivalent temperature (Te) in climate projections, over the Adriatic region. The climate projections were given by the regional climate model RegCM4, with horizontal resolution of 12.5 km, and with boundary conditions determined by 4 global climate models: EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-MR and HadGEM2-ES. (Te) was obtained from near-surface air temperature and specific humidity of air, which are both among the products of RegCM4. By comparing the equivalent temperature in projections for 2021 - 2050 and 2041 - 2070 periods, for two different scenarios of greenhouse gases concentrations, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, the significant increase in all simulations over all areas of analysis was observed, especially over sea areas and, in the warmer part of the year, over land areas. It was also observed that the mixing ratio significantly contributes to the upward trend of (Te), which indicates that (Te) has a strong relationship with moisture availability. Furthermore, all simulations indicate that the mean equivalent temperature over the sea is greater than over the land for both periods in the future