Analysis of global changes in fossil CO₂ emissions during the COVID era : master's thesis

Poznato je da do povećanja fosilnih emisija ugljikovog dioksida (CO₂) došlo uslijed izgaranja sve većih količina fosilnih goriva tijekom godina. Koncentracija CO₂ u atmosferi je u porastu, jer se ne može postići ravnoteža putem prirodnih ponora (uklanjanja) CO₂, što je dodatno utjecalo i na nepovoljne klimatske promjene. Međutim, tijekom 2020. godine došlo je do značajnijeg pada globalnih fosilnih emisija CO₂ zbog ograničavajućih mjera tijekom pandemije COVID-19. Iako je ovaj pad emisija bio znatan, trend fosilnih emisija CO₂ u 2021., ali i kasnije, ovisit će uglavnom o uspješnosti provedbe energetske tranzicije, tijekom oporavka gospodarstava od COVID-19 krize. U ovom diplomskom radu predstavljene su srednje vrijednosti, varijacije i trendovi globalnih fosilnih emisija CO₂ tijekom razdoblja 1959.–2020., s naglaskom na analizu promjena u 2020. godini. Zatim su prikazane procjene za 2021. godinu, te budući dugoročni trendovi globalnih, fosilnih emisija CO₂.It is well known that the increase in fossil emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) is due to the burning of increasing amounts of fossil fuels over the years. The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is increasing because the balance cannot be achieved by natural sinks (removal) of CO₂, which further affects the negative climate change. However, in 2020, there was a significant decrease in global fossil CO₂ emissions due to the restrictive measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although this decrease in emissions was significant, the trend of fossil CO₂ emissions in 2021, as well as in future, will mainly depend on the success of the proven energy transition as economies recover from the COVID-19 crisis. This thesis presents the mean values, variations and trends in global fossil CO₂ emissions over the period 1959-2020, focusing on the analysis of changes in 2020. It then presents projections for 2021 and future long-term trends in global fossil CO₂ emissions