Trust in Communication Channels and the Electoral Preferences of Voters in the Republic of Croatia

Nagli rast broja i prilagodba medija krajnjim korisnicima doveli su do velike raznolikosti komunikacijskih kanala u političkim kampanjama. U središtu svake političke komunikacije je politička poruka i imidž političara. Hipoteza od koje polazi znanstveno istraživanje ove disertacije jest da postoji statistički značajna razlika u izbornoj odluci birača različitih političkih preferencija na predsjedničkim izborima u Republici Hrvatskoj, a s obzirom na povjerenje i učestalost korištenja pojedinih komunikacijskih kanala uz kontrolu sociodemografskih obilježja ispitanika. Primarni cilj istraživanja je naći povezanost korištenja pojedinih kanala komunikacije i izborne odluke, a sekundarni je utvrditi razlike u izboru komunikacijskih kanala i izborne odluke s obzirom na sociodemografske karakteristike birača u kontekstu pripadnosti pojedinoj medijskoj generaciji te utvrditi kojim je komunikacijskim kanalima najlakše doprijeti do pojedine sociodemografski uvjetovane ciljne skupine. Uključeno je 982 punoljetnih ispitanika prosječne starosne dobi: 49 godina (18 - 89), od čega 52 % žena. Većina ispitanika dolazi iz urbane sredine, većinom srednjoškolskog obrazovanja. Navedeni je uzorak bio reprezentativan i prema političkim preferencijama. Korišteni su rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja prikupljenih metodom osobnog anketiranja uz pomoć računala i educiranih anketara. Inicijalno su ispitanici birani „random walk“ metodom. Standardiziranim upitnikom analizirana je razlika u dosegu i povjerenju prema pojedinim vrstama komunikacijskih kanala birača u Republici Hrvatskoj te korelacija s izbornom odlukom pojedinih sociodemografski uvjetovanih skupina birača. Upitnik je uz sociodemografska pitanja sadržavao zatvorena pitanja vezana za učestalost korištenja pojedinih komunikacijskih kanala pri informiranju o političkim temama kao i o povjerenju u pojedine od tih komunikacijskih kanala, a kada su u pitanju političke teme. Analizirani su rezultati o vezi pojedinih sociodemografskih skupina s pojedinim komunikacijskim kanalima, njihovom povjerenju u njih, te je istražena korelacija tih podataka s izbornom odlukom pojedinih ciljnih skupina. Komunikacijski kanali kategorizirani su i analizirani kroz tri skupine: masmedijski, digitalni i interpersonalni. Utvrđena je statistički značajna razlika učestalosti korištenja masmedijskih i digitalnih komunikacijskih kanala (p < 0,01) s obzirom na izbornu odluku birača različitih političkih preferencija na predsjedničkim izborima u Republici Hrvatskoj. Logističkim regresijskim analizama izračunato je u kojoj se mjeri pripadnost pojedinoj medijskoj generaciji može predvidjeti pomoću dobi (p < 0,001), obrazovanja (p = 0,002) te veličini naselja (p = 0,005). Korištenje komunikacijskog kanala utječe na izbornu odluku pojedinca, a češće korištenje pojedinog komunikacijskog kanala povezano je s većim povjerenjem u njega. Osobe koje su više izložene tradicionalnim masovnim medijima češće biraju kandidate velikih stranaka. U Hrvatskoj postoje tri medijske generacije koje imaju različite komunikacijske navike, a pripadnost televizijskoj ili urbanoj medijskoj generaciji dobar je prediktor političke izborne odluke pojedinca.The rapid growth of media and its adaptation to the end user has led to a wide variety of communication channels in political campaigns. At the heart of all political communication is the political message and the image of politicians. The hypothesis on which the scientific research of this dissertation was based is that there is a statistically significant difference in the voting decision of voters of different political preferences in the presidential elections in the Republic of Croatia with regard to the trust in and frequency of use of specific communication channels, with control of socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents. The primary objective of the research was to find the relationship between the use of individual communication channels and the voting decision. The secondary objective was to determine the differences in the choice of a communication channel and voting decision in relation to the socio-demographic characteristics of voters in the context of belonging to a particular media generation, and to determine which communication channels are most effective in reaching a particular socio-demographic target group. The survey included 982 adult respondents; 52 % of whom were women, with a median age of 49 (18 - 89). Most of the respondents were from urban areas and most of them had a high school education. This sample was also representative in terms of political preferences. The analysis was based on the results of quantitative research collected by the method of personal survey with the help of computers and trained interviewers. The respondents were initially selected using the "random walk" method. The standardised questionnaire was used to analyse the difference in reach and trust towards certain types of communication channels of voters in the Republic of Croatia and the correlation with the voting decision of certain socio-demographic groups of voters. In addition to socio-demographic questions, the questionnaire also contained closed questions on the frequency of use of certain communication channels for information on political issues, as well as trust in some of these communication channels when it came to political issues. The results regarding the association of individual socio-demographic groups with specific communication channels and their trust in them were analysed and the correlation of this data with the voting decision of individual target groups was examined. The communication channels were categorised and analysed in three groups: Mass Media, Digital and Interpersonal. There was a statistically significant difference in the frequency of use of mass media and digital communication channels (p < 0.01) in relation to the voting decision of voters with different political preferences in the presidential elections in the Republic of Croatia. Logistic regression analyses were used to calculate the extent to which belonging to a particular media generation can be predicted based on age (p < 0.001), education (p = 0.002) and settlement size (p = 0.005). The use of a communication channel influences an individual's voting decision, and more frequent use of a single communication channel is associated with greater trust in it. Individuals who are more exposed to traditional mass media are more likely to vote for candidates from major political parties. In Croatia, there are three media generations that have different communication habits and belonging to a TV or urban media generation is a good predictor of an individual's political voting decision