Informing behaviour change intervention design using systematic review with Bayesian meta-analysis: physical activity in heart failure

Embracing the Bayesian approach, we aimed to synthesise evidence regarding barriers and enablers to physical activity in heart failure (HF) in a way that can inform behaviour change intervention development. This approach helps in estimating and quantifying the uncertainty in the evidence and facilitates the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative studies. Qualitative and observational studies investigating barriers and enablers to physical activity in adults diagnosed with HF were included in this systematic review with a Bayesian meta-analysis. Qualitative evidence was annotated using the Theoretical Domains Framework and represented as a prior distribution using an expert elicitation task. The maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) was calculated as a summary statistic for the probability distribution for the log OR value estimating the relationship between physical activity and each determinant, according to qualitative evidence alone, quantitative evidence, and qualitative and quantitative evidence combined. The dispersion in the probability distribution for log OR associated with each barrier or enabler was used to evaluate the level of uncertainty in the evidence. Wide, medium, and narrow dispersion (SD) corresponded to high, moderate, and low uncertainty in the evidence, respectively. Evidence from three qualitative and 16 (N = 2739) quantitative studies was synthesised. High pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, pro-BNP (MAP value for log OR = -1.16; 95% CrI: [-1.21; -1.11]) and self-reported symptoms (MAP for log OR = 0.48; 95% CrI: [0.40; 0.55]) were suggested as barriers to physical activity with narrow distribution dispersion (SD = 0.18 and 0.19, respectively). Modifiable barriers were symptom distress (MAP for log OR = -0.46; 95% CrI: [-0.68; -0.24]), and negative attitude (MAP for log OR = -0.40; 95% CrI: [-0.49; -0.31]), SD = 0.36 and 0.26, respectively. Modifiable enablers were social support (MAP for log OR = 0.56; 95% CrI: [0.48; 0.63]), self-efficacy (MAP for log OR = 0.43; 95% CrI: [0.32; 0.54]), positive physical activity attitude (MAP for log OR = 0.92; 95% CrI: [0.77; 1.06]), SD = 0.26, 0.37, and 0.36, respectively. This work extends the limited research on the modifiable barriers and enablers for physical activity by individuals living with HF