Predicting the Odds of Failing to Progress: A Statistical Analysis of Factors Related to Criminology Students and their Progression on a Programme of Study

Despite the rise in the number of criminology students studying in Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in the UK, little statistical research has been carried out on the factors related to the non-progression of such students on a programme of study. To help plug this gap in the research, survey data was gathered from three consecutive cohorts of first year undergraduate Criminology students (n=165), who were enrolled at a university in the North of England from 2014 to 2017, throughout their first year of study. The results show that 25% (n=42) of students did not progress onto the second year of their programme. Binary logistic regression was used to identify variables that predict their odds of failing to progress onto the second year of their programme of study. Three variables were found to positively indicate students failing to progress. These were, descending from the strongest to least strong predictor: i) being referred in assessments over the year (having to re-do the assessment because of grading below the pass-mark or a non-submission); ii) thinking about dropping out of university towards the end of the first year; and iii) moving to study at their HEI. Findings from the sister-paper, which analysed the qualitative data from the research, are drawn on to make sense of the statistical results, with a specific focus on students and their transitioning into higher education. The implications of these findings for HEIs are discussed